korona zoom teaching, Mon 20.4 and Wed 22.4

We continue our zoom teaching, with rounds on Mon 20.4 and Wed 22.4, both at 13:00, and for not too long. Check and use also the Hjelpetr?der A, B, C, ...

The Cunen-Hjort FocuStat blog post "Confidence Distributions for Dummies" is curriculum, so read it, and use Hjelpetr?d to ask questions. 

I've uploaded the dataset smallchildren_data to the website. Read in these data in your computer, giving (x1, x2, x3, x4, y), where y is 0-1 for notsmall-small child; x1 is age; x2 is weight before pregnancy; x3 is 0-1 for nonsmoker-smoker; x4 is 0-1 for white-nonwhite.

Carry out logistic regression -- programme the loglikelihood, maximise it, find the standard deviations, find the significant and nonsignificant covariates. Find estimates and confidence intervals for gamma = Pr(Mrs Jones will have a small child), for two or three versions of Mrs Jones (i.e. invent covariates for her).

Dennis and Nils play n = 10^5 iid games, mean zero, finite variance. Let X_n be the portion of the time Nils is cumukatively leading. Show that X_n tends to X, the amount of time a Brownian motion on [0,1] is above zero level. Simulate this distribution.

Simulate y_1, ..., y_n from an Expo with parameter \theta_0 = 3.333. Find two confidence curves \cc(\theta), using the two recipes in the Celine-Nils blog post.